Wall Street analysts have raised the price target for the NIO stock to $50 a share. They have issued “Buy” ratings for the stock. The company released the third quarter earnings report. There have been some great things happening in the background. It may become the Tesla of China in the next few years.
Key Highlights of third quarter 2020 earnings
- NIO achieved a record-high quarterly deliveries of 12,206 in the third quarter of 2020. It’s a growth of 154% YoY and a 18% quarterly increase. In October, they had the best monthly deliveries of 5,055 vehicles.
- A total of 31,430 vehicles were delivered this year 2020 so far.
- The company expects to deliver about 17,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2020.
- The total revenue was $666.6 million, which is a 146.1% YoY increase and a 22.4% increase from the previous quarter.
- The expected revenue for the fourth quarter is between $921 to $948 million.
- The gross profit was $86.3 million in the third quarter of 2020.
- The gross margins are improving. This is a very good sign because the company is making money after covering all the costs for manufacturing. The gross margin was 12.9% in the third quarter of 2020 up from 8.4% in the second quarter of 2020.
- The net loss was $154.2 million, but this is showing improvement from previous quarters and years.
- Positive cash flow from operations for the second straight quarter.
- NIO has Cash and cash equivalents of $3.3 billion on its balance sheet.
Capital raise in the public markets
In September 2020, NIO completed the offering of 101.8 million shares at a price of $17 each. This helped the company raise the much needed capital. When the share price is high, smart capital allocation dictates that the management issues new shares. Yes it results in the dilution of existing shareholders, but due to the market conditions, this will not put any pressure on the stock price.
If the management feels that the shares are undervalued, it is better to raise capital by issuing debt. These are the kinds of decisions that one needs to look at. This will give a good understanding of the capital allocation capabilities of the management.
Increasing or buying out equity interests
Using the raised capital, NIO has increased its equity interest in NIO China. They have bought out some of the equity interest from another investor. The company now controls 86.5% of the equity in NIO Holdings, the legal entity of NIO China.
NIO also bought the entire equity interest in XPT Automotive Technology. XPT mainly designs, develops and manufactures electric motors, battery packs and other smart electric vehicle components.
NIO Battery pack technology
NIO launched the BaaS (Battery as a Service) model. This was to reduce the upfront cost the customer has to pay to purchase the vehicle. Then the customers pay a monthly fee for battery charging and upgrade. This results in recurring revenue for the company.
The company also launched the 100kWh battery pack in November 2020. The 100kWh cell-to-pack battery pack has realized 37% higher energy density than the 70kWh battery. This enables a range of up to 382 miles on a single charge.
If users opt to purchase an ES8, ES6 or EC6 and subscribe for the 100kWh battery pack under the Battery as a Service (the “BaaS”) model. They can purchase the vehicle without the battery pack while paying a monthly subscription fee of about $225. Existing 75kWh battery pack owners can upgrade to the 100kWh battery pack by paying $130 monthly or purchasing the new battery pack.
Flexibility and Affordability for customers
This gives great flexibility for EV buyers. Battery technologies are evolving each day. The hazards of batteries catching fires are reduced with future releases. Instead of locking into a single battery pack, they can just purchase the car without the battery pack. Then pay a monthly subscription for the company. In case a new battery pack is launched, they can just upgrade it to the next pack.
Battery swap technology lets the customers swap their drained battery for a fully charged battery in 3 minutes. They have established 158 battery-swapping stations in China, with 1.18 million swaps performed so far.
NIO Power Battery charging infrastructure
NIO Power has built an extensive network of DC fast chargers and energy services. Customers can have the chargers installed at their homes. They have also built an App that lets users locate and charge across all their charging stations. The payment processing has been built into the App.
This is a huge thing because it brings in recurring revenue and maintains a loyal customer base of users. This is what ChargePoint is building across North America and Europe.
XPeng motors which is another fast rising EV manufacturer in China has run into some financial troubles. So they have abandoned their plans of building the charging station networks. They merged their network and payment-and-processing system with NIO’s.
Conclusion
The market cap is $65B as of this article. The shares outstanding are 1.35B. The expected revenue is $2.3B this year. But a lot of things have started to fall in place for NIO. The worst is over and the growth runway is ahead. Currently the stock is trading at 30 times the revenue. If the revenue grows 30% compounded over the next 3 years, that would be $5.6B. If we have a conservative 20 multiple for revenue, the market cap would be $112B. Assuming there will be further dilution of shares and the share count be 1.4B, the price per share would be $112B market cap/1.4B shares outstanding = $80 per share in the next 3 years.