One Sunday afternoon, as I was relaxing at home, I got a call from my dear friend who is also in the Technology field. He sounded nervous. He was invested in his company with the Employee Stock Options (ESOs). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, his company stock fell by 50%. His friends had sold their stock before the lock-in period and now he could not sell as his company was about to release their financials.
He had been purchasing these options through the corporate plan. His concern was how much value his stock would be as there seems to be no bottom for the market that gloomy weekend. Second was he was full of regret why he did not sell it when his friends were selling. He asked me for advice as to his course of action.
First thing I did was to ask him his company name and stock ticker. Then while he was on the call, I checked the financials on Yahoo finance. His company was making a little over $2 billion in revenue with a Net loss of about $800 million. The market capitalization that day was about $14 billion. I told this to him and his first question was how did I get this information. I explained that since this is a publicly traded company, all this information is available online.
He seemed to be a bit surprised that his company was not making any income and in fact in a loss. I explained to him that since it’s the technology sector, that is how the valuation is done. Investors are confident of the prospects and give rich valuations. I then asked him about the total market value of his domain and the market share of his company, who the competitors are. He had no idea. I asked him to download and read the annual report and he will find all the information there. He agreed to it.
Then he asked the million dollar question: Should he sell his stock or wait it out. I knew he did not need the money right away. So I asked him to keep a long term view and not sell right now since he will be locking in his losses. No one knows what will happen to the price of a stock but he was in a hot field. So patience is a virtue at this time. He thanked me and hung up.
It’s been a week I had this conversation and the price is back to a loss of about 25% which is much better. But what got me thinking was that at least people who participate in the Stock options should know what their company is worth and keep an eye on the market. It is a good idea to cash out from time to time when the valuations reach lofty levels. A basic corporate finance education is necessary for everyone even though they invest in Index funds or in any other Asset sector!